Re: Where is the flaw in this logic?
Here's a rough estimate:
(assumptions 5pt fav wins 66%, covers 50%, therefore dog wins 34% and fav wins 1-4pts 16%
Favs cover: 25% * -9.68 = $-2.42
Favs win <5: 2.6% * 32.32 = $0.83
Dogs win: 11.6% * 9 = $1.04
1 fav >5, 1 fav<5 16% * 11.32 = $1.81
1 dog win, 1 fav<5 10.9% * 9 = $0.98
1 fav >5, 1 dog win 34% * 12 = -$4.08
EV: -$1.84
Let me know if I screwed up the math somewhere.
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