Re: Where is the flaw in this logic?
I think some deep math on the likelyhood of each scenario will show a flaw but I cant quite spot it yet. You definitely have me thinking.
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Scenarios 1, 2, and 3 seem the most common
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Scenario 3 is NOT common, pulling off the squeeze play on both bets will not happen often, its a super small % of the time
That also goes into saying you may be over valueing Scenario 2 & 5 as it also implements the ever glorious squeeze
I think scenario 1 will happen the most and you dont have enough other bets to counteract its negatives
Anyway, let us know what you figure out
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