Re: Derby Picks
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I'm taking whoever Pletcher has in- he's due
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I am kinda doing the opposite..
I think Nobiz makes a step up in the Derby after some aggressive schooling to shake his greenness. Circular Quay should hit the super provided his doesn't run into traffic issues, whether he has enough to win would depend on the trip given his running style. Not a big Scat Daddy fan, I think Pletcher is going to have a rough day ala the 2006 Breeder's Cup, with only CQ showing up. SD was all out to hold off the likes of Notional in the Fl Derby with a sub-100 Beyer, so I am not impressed. Look for how Pletcher's horses run at CD the first week, I believe he had some medication concerns at CD and thus the subpar meet last fall.
There is no reason to bet Curlin on top, he will be a huge underlay, the fact that he was sold at a loss as a yearling with that impeccable breeding probably indicates he was not developing fast enough to be ready for a serious derby run, that he's come this far in so little time is impressive though.
In order of preference, Nobiz, Street Sense, CQ, Saturday & Scat Daddy; depending on how Pletcher is running at CD, I might move up Great Hunter and Hard Spun to super spots.
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