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Old 02-23-2006, 12:41 AM
BobJoeJim BobJoeJim is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Ashland, OR
Posts: 1,450
Default Re: When can you be confident that you are a winner?

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Nope. 374x$110 bet = $41140.
2644/41140= 6.43%.

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I would adjust my unit when my bankroll has grown 20%, and never adjust when my bankroll is down.

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I prefer to resize everyday when you are betting a small unit size, but plenty of people use thresholds and there's not really anything wrong with it. However, not adjusting when you are losing is a recipe for disaster.

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I disagree. It would take a monumental downswing for me to lose 100 units (one that I haven't seen to this date). I have lost over 50 a few times however. If I had adjusted my unit when I was losing, I would have had to win SIGNIFICANTLY more bets than I otherwise would have to get back to even. I think adjusting when you are down just makes it one big teeter totter. When I lose, and don't adjust, I only have to win back the bets I lost. If I do adjust, I have to win back more than I lost.

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You're right that lowering your bet when you go on a downswing will make it take longer to get your head back above water, but keeping your bet flat when you're in a downswing will greatly increase your risk of ruin. Overall, it's personal preference which matters to you, but my outlook is that if you prefer a higher risk of ruin, to avoid the grind, you are less likely to be a long term winner. That's not meant to be a knock on anyone who disagrees, it's just my personal gambling philosophy.
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