Re: Where is the flaw in this logic?
At a glance, I would say that the flaw in your logic is:
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Scenarios 1, 2, and 3 seem the most common and, over time, you should find enough instances in which a game or two happens that the favored team wins by 1, 2, 3, or 4.
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"Seem the most common," and "you should find," are dangerous phrases, you'll need to calculate actual chances of these things happening before you can calculate whether the play is +EV or -EV.
This is an interesting approach, though, I'd like to see you do a more mathematically detailed analysis on it. It might be good.
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