[DVaut1]

[ QUOTE ]
All my hands were pretty boring in this event, but some pretty interesting hands happened at my table. I really liked the following 2 hands:

Hand # 1:

Blinds 25-50, all stacks around 20k.
EP raises to 200, MP calls, Button calls, SB calls.

Flop is A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

SB checks, EP bets 600, button calls, SB calls

Turn 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

SB checks, EP bets 1500, button raises to 3500, now SB raises to 10500. EP goes to the tank.

What are their holdings?
What should EP and button do?



[/ QUOTE ]

I'll give it a go with my donkish reads:

- EP: has AA, 77, or AsKs; I'm thinking he has AA 60% of the time, 77 25% of the time, and AsKs 15% of the time. I doubt EP is going into the tank with AKo. Maybe AsQs/AsJs is an outside possibility. I really can't imagine EP thinking long about AsXs though -- seems like a pretty quick fold to me if he's got AsXs, since he's only getting 2 to 1 after SB puts in his more-than-pot-sized 10k turn raise, and he has to think he's up against a set/a straight, so he's not getting the right odds to call and hope to river the flush. Perhaps he has 55, but I'm assuming (perhaps wrongly) that he's not raising 55 from EP there. That sounds pretty aggro to me, but again, I might be wrong. It's not far away from raising 77 PF in the EP, which I'm giving him credit for, so perhaps I should give 55 more liklihood in his range.

Regardless, if I'm EP, I'm folding anything other than AA or 77 -- and I'm going into the tank with both of these. This is a great laydown if he can get off a set here.

- Button: the 3h on the turn isn't a scare card and EP fired another bullet, and it's still early, so unless the button has reason to think EP is especially tight, I doubt he's trying to buy this. I'm having a hard time figuring out the button's hand here, since we only know that EP went into the tank. I think the button has a huge range here -- and he very well could have turned the straight, or been trying to trap with a flopped set, since he may not have considered the SB would coming along for the ride on the flop, but now feels the need to get a little more aggro and end his trap of the EP since the SB called on the flop. Perhaps As3s, but that seems very unlikely. Regardless, if I'm the EP (like the button), I'm folding almost everything here if I haven't turned the straight (obviously, I'm not folding 64 here) or I didn't flop the set. Again, a great laydown by the button if he can get off a flopped set here. I know I couldn't make it.

- SB has either 77, 55, or 64 - and I think 77 and 55 are very unlikely, given that most people aren't check-calling that draw-heavy flop against 2 opponents. 64 makes sense to me, but that might be a loose call preflop OOP. He was getting a good price, though. 64 makes sense because, while he's got the nuts, it's still susceptible if he thinks either the EP or the button has one of those AsXs hands -- so his 10.5k turn raise fits in, especially because he knows how difficult it will be for the EP/button to laydown a set here. It's a great value bet that also protects against flush draws that might be out there.

I obviously don't play at these levels, so perhaps I'm wayyyyy off on the ranges here.