Re: When can you be confident that you are a winner?
Fair enough, but I am much more willing to not be able to easily access my success than going broke. I think that kelly betting, and any system that varies your bet size is extremely volatile.
It is very rare for me to make a bet with +500 let alone +1000, so the chance of me going broke on these bets would probably take me the rest of my life. I think it would be much easier to go broke losing 20 bets where you have bet 5 units on a favorite than lose 100 units on betting underdogs...although clearly a ton of other stuff is involved in that.
I guess what I am trying to say is that if you are making some bets with 1 unit, and some bets with 5 units, then the only significant bets are the 5 unit ones...you might as well not even make the 1 unit bets.
Lets say you have a night where you have 4 favorites that you like. You will be risking 20% of your bankroll in one night. Am I the only one not comfortable with that? That seems like a vastly greater ROR than flat betting.
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