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Old 04-21-2007, 12:01 AM
yNnOs yNnOs is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 225
Default Re: Scenario: Heads Up @ Final Table WSOP Main Event - WHAT DO YOU DO?

Thats a much better question shermn, one that actually makes sense to think about. I think your right that there must be some number where your better than 82% favorite, but shudder to think how big that could be. I don't think you can come up with a number though, in any reliable sense.

Your dealing with several non-linear factors going to work on each other. Certainly deterministic given a set of parameters, but unpredictable as things play out. So IMHO the number of BB's and hands (for that to be true) would be changing constantly as the game progresses. And thats assuming your edge remains constant.

So as the BB's of the stacks change, the number of hands changes. And as you play more hands, the number of BB's for that to be true is also changing. So essentially if you were to figure out it took 1,000,000 hands with a stack of 200BB's, after the first 500,000 hands things might have changed so that it now takes only another 100,000 hands to maintain that 82%. Which means it really only took 600,000 from where you initially started. I don't think you can know at any one point the number.

Needless to say, the numbers (BB and hands) has to be relatively large. I also dont think there's one set x BB's, and x hands thats the one answer; there are probably lots of combinations. I hope I made some sense and didn't cause anyone to reach for a gun. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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