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Old 04-19-2007, 07:23 PM
John Kilduff John Kilduff is offline
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Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 1,903
Default Re: Gun accidents? Guns are dangrous?

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I don't want to be a "google is your friend" nit, but it really isn't that hard. I just googled "did alcohol usage increase with prohibition" and got your answer for you:

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But the question is, "Does it work?" Did alcohol prohibition work back in the 1920s? Did it succeed in its primary goal - eliminating "demon alcohol"? It is true that alcohol consumption dropped considerably shortly after prohibition took effect. But, this was only a temporary condition caused by the disruption in the supply of alcohol. Almost immediately after the legal breweries and saloons were closed down, speakeasies began sprouting up to take their place. It took a few years for the black market to get going, but as soon as it did, alcohol consumption nearly returned back to normal.

It is difficult to get exact figures on alcohol consumption from the 1920s since, after all, it was an underground activity. Some guesses show that in the waning years of prohibition alcohol consumption was at around 60-70% of pre-prohibition levels - other people argue that there was actually an increase. The only "official" figures I have found show that alcohol consumption in 1934 (the year after prohibition) was 50% of the level in 1919 (the year before). But even this number is somewhat suspect since a few state and counties held onto prohibition for a few years after the repeal of the 18th amendment - So, it is probably safe to assume that they had a sizable black market as well. In any case, the numbers show that prohibition fell well short of achieving its primary objective - the total elimination of alcohol.

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http://www.newspeakdictionary.com/ct-prohibition.html

NCAces

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Well I like to make assumptions. That was a rhetorical question, of course alcohol usage decreased with prohibition. Why would I need to look that up? If it goes from being readily available to more difficult to obtain then its consumption will decrease. So that link proved the obvious, that it decreased but didn't eliminate alcohol consumption.

I'm guessing that internet poker playing decreased in the US since the Frist law too. But I'm a wild man so I'll keep on making my crazy assumptions without verifying them.

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pyedog,

I'm sure you realize that there exist quite a number of things that seem logical or intuitively obvious, but that on closer inspection, turn out to be surprisingly different. This pattern occurs in science, in poker, in puzzles, and in many other areas. Of course, it occurs sometimes in politics too.

I would really suggest that you spend at least a bit of time reading some of the linked information regarding guns.

Violent crime in the U.K. has indeed increased as gun controls were increasingly implemented. Of course there could be many reasons for that.

It's one thing to be opinionated and to think one is correct about something; it's entirely another to wilfully shut out all evidence to the contrary. No one is suggesting you become a research fanatic, but at least familiarizing yourself with some of the compiled statistics would be a good idea if you intend to discuss such matters further.

There's nothing wrong with making assumptions, and making assumptions is a useful tool. For assumptions to remain a useful tool, they must be tempered or adjusted as new evidence presents itself. I would hope you see the truth to this statement.

Anyway, thanks for reading this post, and I look forward to reading more of your perspective on these matters.
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