[seke2]

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Well hand 54, at least last decision looks [censored] up. Against this wierd kind of guy who can pull unpredictable move you've got to call.
Against a standard vilain, i think you STILL have got to call but that's closer.

You're getting 5:1 odds, you can lose and have 30k left (which is way enough to come back).
You're 3:1 against pp<Q
You crush some of his dumb Ax (i definately think you can be ahead sometime against this guy)
You're crushed only against AA KK QQ AK a set, doesn't seem to me you can really give credit to vilain for this kind of hands often enough.

I go by the road "i don't let my chips out there without protection". Let's gamble. His range is probably a 2:1 or 3:1 fav over you at most.

Does the payout structure modify things enough to make this simple reasoning wrong?

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No, the payout structure is fairly standard for a MTT.

My real problem was that I could see the Villain doing this with a lot of hands. A5, AJ, any 2 spades, etc. I thought his most likely holding was a pair of some sort, possibly 55 or 88-TT. I also thought AK was possible. I felt that I probably had the odds against his range, but at the same time, losing 25k more on that hand would have hurt my stack significantly when I felt that I was definitely the best of the players, and way better than that guy.

I felt that I might have taken a slightly -EV line in folding even with good odds to call in order to preserve my stack to take advantage of more clearly +EV opportunities later.