Re: short stack push for 2xBB, ATo on button
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No antes.
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And I guess no reads on the 'awareness' of the blinds.
So when it gets to you there is 685 in the pot. I like to raise between 700 and 800 here to denies good odds to the blinds to flat call to see a flop. A raise to 650 give 3:1 pot odds for a flat call from the BB!
Greatly simplyfied, assuming that the reraising range of the blinds are top 10% of hands, then 80% of the times both blind will fold. The raise here with A-10 is clearly +EV (I calculated approximately +250 on average going in against MP1 a 60% favorite and folding to a raise from the blinds).
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OK, assume you are a 60% favorite against the short stack, you raise to 750, the blinds reraise 20% of the time to which you fold, and the blinds never flat call.
If you isolate, there is 1060 in the pot. Your average gain is +256. If you are reraised, you lose 750. So your average gain is 256 * .8 - 750 * .2 = + 54 chips.
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OK I do not think I agree with all of the math here.
0,6 of 1070 is 642
0,4 I loose 385 which means 154
Net here is 488.
0.8 * 488 - 0.2 *700 = 250
How is that?
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Don't argue with me about math. My calculations are correct.
If you isolate and win the hand, you win 685 chips. You have to subtract the 385 you invested.
.6* 685 = 411. So net is 411-154 = 257. .8*257 - .2 *700 = +79 chips. I calculated +54 chips, partly because I assumed a raise to 750 rather than 700.
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Betgo,
Do not get mad here. I am not trying to argue with I just want to get this wright regardless of who is right or wrong.
BTW I respect you quite a bit as a poster here and as a player (expect for that one time when you pushed from the button with KJ got called by the SB with KQ and me in the BB with AJ. You took both of us blinds out of the tourney with your str8... lol).
(15 minutes later) Dam you are right. Well thanks. Looking foward to see you at the table.
Cheers
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