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Old 04-13-2007, 10:46 AM
seke2 seke2 is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 3,885
Default Re: calling all-in with AK (again)

For those saying fold, you can't be saying it for cEV reasons, right?

If that's the case, I can pretty much guarantee you that it's a call, because unless the payout structure is completely bizarre, cEV and $EV aren't going to diverge significantly here, and none of the other arguments hold enough weight to swing things. To address dedor's post with the laid out arguments for folding:

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1. If we fold and the big stack win, the table will break up and i presumably wont have a big stack to my left. this will be a huge advantage for me. (a point mentioned by sethypooh21)

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Possibly, but you could still end up in a bad position relative to a big stack. That's a pretty crappy reason to fold, and doesn't impact your equity much.
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2. at best case I'm 72% favorite , if my read is correct and he is doing it with any 2 (live cards) so I am only 63% favorite, at worse case I'm 45% underdog. (lets assume he is not doing it with KK or AA).

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Getting a sick overlay in this pot, especially because the shortie could easily have a worse ace or Kx and still push here. So you have a huge cEV edge. I don't see how this is an argument to fold.
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3. Although my main concerns is the big stack , there are 2 all-ins here. this means that I need a much better hand to call this because the short stack might be doing this with an A or a K taking one of my outs.

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Uhm, okay, but if the shortie somehow wins the main pot, you can still make a profit on this hand by just beating the SB even if you lose to the shortie. So you don't even HAVE to win the main pot to profit here.
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4. my stack size will be still very good after folding ( 5 in chips out of 18 or 19).

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This is the best argument for folding, but I'm pretty sure that cEV and $EV will not diverge significantly until you get deeper into the FT.

As far as your arguments for calling, you missed a big one.

You have a TON of equity (at least even money) in this pot getting better way better than even money on your call.
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