Re: Would You Try It? Live Shenanigans (long rambling post)
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from my experience playing live 5-10nl, if you want to bluff, use the flush cards. from my other experiences at live 5-10nl don't try to bluff someone off a set of aces when you know they have it.
in this situation, i don't think it is obvious that villain has a set of aces. i think it is much more likely that hero has 2 pair or a smaller set. i don't mind a big raise here at all. it's a winning play against the player and the situation that is described here.
(you really set this up for a push to be right though. weak player, about to leave, always thinks his opponent has the nuts) obviously if all that is true we have to push here.
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It IS obvious that the weak player in the hand has a set. The only other possibility is As and Qs, and that is a distant possibility, because of the flop play.
I "set it up to be a push" because this was a spot where all of the factors needed for the guy to fold a good hand seemed to be present, and yet, it still seems very dangerous to try to bluff a bad player off of top set. I know that the general plan when for a tough internet player coming into these passive games is to run it over; I'm asking if you'll take it this far. Luego says it's not close; that's what I'm asking. Do others agree or disagree?
These situations are worth so many BBs if you play them correctly that IMO they're worth talking about. How far do you take it? Let's say that you KNOW he has AAA, QQQ, or JJJ when he bets the turn. Would you call that bet on the turn with air, knowing that there are 13 cards that put a 3-flush or a 4-straight on the board (without pairing the board)?
Also, FWIW, I wouldn't try to rep the straight on the turn, because a bad player needs to muster so much psychological strength to fold a set in the first place, I think adding the fact that he'd have 10 outs if he was behind would make folding impossible for him.
Thanks for all the comments so far, and feel free to add whatever.
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