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Old 04-13-2007, 04:43 AM
Evan Evan is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: startupping
Posts: 14,351
Default Re: How much $ is needed to never have to work again?

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Is that not made up by the market overperforming some other time in the 20 years necessary for no growth of the principal before we are busto?

I mean I see that losing 30% sucks big ass because now our gains are only on 70% of our initial investment, but I don't see how only gaining 2% the first year is going to break this plan.

I'm not saying it will never not work, and I'd definitely recommend a bond/equity mix, but it isn't as dire as some of you are making it to be.

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"Made up for" is a risky term. If we get hit hard up front it's going to be very hard for the market's outperformance to catch up since we start withdrawing on day one.

This is the sort of problem where you need to put risk of ruin above expected return.
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