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Old 04-12-2007, 02:14 PM
PantsOnFire PantsOnFire is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 2,409
Default Re: Common No Limit Situation

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All of you who would fold, do you see raising as a awfull play or just not as good as folding.

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I don't think it is an awful play.

But I do have a problem with the fact that everybody is going to have a good read on UTG. From the other five players perspective, what can UTG have? The only likely draw UTG has is AhKh or perhaps KhQh. Players who hit a set can only be afraid of AA or a draw (which means the other players not UTG). A player with Ah figures UTG will not (likely) raise with KhQh. AK is likely for UTG but anybody with an excellent draw might stick around knowing AK will not improve very often on the turn.

I think the real reason for a raise here is to win the pot outright. You certainly don't want players sticking around with that kind of wet board. Perhaps you could see a brick on the turn and shove, but you still face the possiblity of a set or two pair being out there. And with the brick on the turn (and there are not really that many bricks here), these hands will only be afraid of AA.

So I think the best hand you can represent here is a set of aces. Any draw might see some good implied odds and figure a set of aces will not fold to a turn push if a draw hits.

Another consideration is someone coming over the top. The nut flush draw might just put you a big ace or KK and simply shove. Not much you can do there except say goodbye to your raise money.

The last thing about a raise is who do you want to call? What hands do you figure to extract more money out of on the turn? I can't see many second best hands following UTG to the river since his range is so narrow. The only hand I see sticking around is AK and that beats UTG.

So a raise does have some chance of winning the pot outright but two rather bad things could happen. There could be that over the top re-raise or if there are callers, your turn play will be very difficult.
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