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Old 04-12-2007, 04:01 AM
Jake M. Jake M. is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Mpls, MN
Posts: 110
Default Re: The donk logic confuses me (Stuper hand)

Well the UTG player did only min raise so the big blind is probably going to call his raise pre flop with literally any two cards. That's what makes this especially difficult. Had it been the UTG player min raising, we would be able to come up with a range. As for the big blind, he has a very broad range. He could have a number of hands. I will agree with you that he probably wouldn't lead the flop with a big hand because everyone loves to slowplay. That is what makes AK/Q not likely. You probably would have heard a re raise from him preflop with AK, maybe even AQ (AQ suited, just because you are so deep stacked early in these tournaments). Anywho, I do not think AK/Q is in his range. I do feel however Aces up COULD be in his range (though still unlikely). If there weren't two spades on the flop, he would check Aces up (though he still may check Aces up here hoping no spade falls or maybe even a check raise) Nonetheless, I think you have the best hand here. You have a good kicker (considering his range), like you mentioned he probably would not lead this flop with this monster. Not only not lead the flop but for what he lead. He lead pot. Which is what makes me believe even more so that we have the best hand. If he did have Aces up, I do not believe he would lead pot. I think he would have lead for 150-200 with Aces up/a strong hand (if he is even advanced enough to lead with a set). Also, did you happen to see how fast he bet on the flop? Generally whenever I see a player make a quick bet/call, they tend to be drawing. To me, I really think he has a hand like 67 spades (straight and flush draw). He could also have a hand like K 10 spades (just a dry flush draw). I just don't believe he would lead pot with a great hand.
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