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Old 04-11-2007, 04:28 PM
futuredoc85 futuredoc85 is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: ATL
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Default Re: Common No Limit Situation

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I really like this question David - one of your better poker questions that ive read - as this is a very difficult scenario...

Anyways... I think a call here will give away your hand. The BB will know that with just a call that you have AK/AQ. Therefore you can expect a big raise almost regardless of what card hits on the turn. A raise to roughly 2000$ would tell you where you stand most likely , however, this is 1/6+ of your stack and your goal is not to figure out where you stand, it is to win the pot or avoid losing alot of money. If you raise and are called by more than just the BB, or reraised by the BB, then you are in serious trouble and just lost yourself that bet.

Anyways. Against a good player you are most likely beat, or even destroyed. You could be against a hand like 9 10 hearts (straight flush draw) but this is almost certainly not the case. With a straight flush draw the BB would assume you hit the ace and let you bet again. Then he might raise or call.

The main reason you play AQ strongly preflop is because it is suited. You have no backdoor flush draw anymore. Your hand has gone from pretty good to crap. Assuming that we dont know much about our opponents ability to bluff or semi bluff (this isnt Sammy Farha betting into you is it?) you can assume that your opponent has at least 2 pair. You cannot be certain however that a Queen on the turn will ensure your victory. The Queen of hearts is not going to make you feel stronger and so you can only hope for 2 cards in the deck.

So my decision - although it would annoy me - would be to throw the hand away. You lost 200 but I think any other play would make you lose alot more. Youve got about 11,800 left so wait for a better scenario.

Putting my thoughts about this hand into words would require about 50 pages worth of stuff. Isnt it amazing how fast our brains work - good poker players analyze 1000s of possibilities before they are required to act (online this is like 30 seconds tops). if you dont agree with me it may be because I left out a couple thoughts...

peace

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another scenario i didnt mention. make a very convincing ALL IN raise and you might get the pot. bluff 3 aces. hed probably fold

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i think you're being serious and that makes me sad
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