Thread: Our PS winrates
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  #24  
Old 04-10-2007, 11:46 PM
binions binions is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: Toronto, CA
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Default Re: Our PS winrates

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what is long?

people say: play 10k hands than post you stats her for review

others say: play 100k to eliminate swings...

I will post some datamined charts and i would really like to discuss:
"if you can beat the game"

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You need 30,000 hands at a level before knowing your general winrate, and 100,000 hands at a level before knowing your specific winrate.

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Such a crock.

Assume 18BB/100 standard deviation, which I understand is normal if you work it out right. Then over a 100,000 hand sample your standard error is
18/sqrt(1000) = 0.57

so with 95% confidence you know your winrate to within plus/minus 1.14BB/100

That is not particularly specific.



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Guess it depends on what you mean by specific.

BTW - if your winrate is 3BB/100 after 100,000 hands, your equation means that your true winrate is 2.43BB to 3.57BB. (Not 1.86BB to 4.14BB).

To me, that's pretty specific.
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