Re: The Truth About the Rich
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His post is a logical truth.
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It is anything but.
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If people have X% chance of changing their socioeconomic status in Y years, they have >X% chance to do so in >Y years. There may be a dimishing return but X never doesn't increase when Y increases.
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1. That's not what I was objecting to in his post. I was specifically objecting to him posting that it would be significantly different over a longer period of time (i.e. assuming the distribution of people who stop being rich is random). It would be like saying "90% of all species died out within 1 million years during the Permian extinction. Therefore 99% of all species died out within 2 million years". There is a threshold of time beyond which you are far less likely to change status.
2. Your post is also wrong. X can certainly not increase. It can stay the same. It can also decrease. Or are you saying that once you lose your fortune you can *never* get it back?
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Math is hard, obv.
What is this "threshold of time beyond which you are far less likely to change in status?? Is "the year 2000" such a threshold? I presume you're talking about an individual's age - and as far as I can tell, this data didn't control for age, so if anyone is making "unwarranted assumptions" it would be you.
Point 2 supports the position you're attacking. This should be fairly intuitive.
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