Re: EPT Monte Carlo Trip Report (3rd and Final Part)
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Jurollo agreed it's a good start and gets at Patrik's postflop decision fairly well, but there's just no way he's equally likely to fourbet J3 clubs as AK clubs, for example. Preflop weightings have to be estimated/accounted for somehow.
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He may 4bet J3 more often than AK ur right
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There's 0 chance you are right. Because the weighting starts with the open raise. Even if he'd call the 3bet (OOP!) instead of 4 bet w/ AK some significant percentange, and would 100% 4 bet or fold J3s, he makes the first raise 100% of the time with AK and a small % of the time with J3. For every preflop action sequence other than fold initially, AK is a bigger part of the range than J3s.
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Except the information given is that he's opening 100% here, so I'd say it's extremely likely he'd 4bet J3 more than AK here.
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This reasoning makes no sense at all.
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