Re: Monte Carlo Hand 1
Call pretty quickly (repping hands such as 45s or 44).
Glenne may call with a hand like AK/AQs (overcards + gutshot + backdoor flush draw), or a high pocket pair, or even get crazy and shove a high pocket pair.
Assuming he calls, the pot would then be around 21000, with Glenne having 17K, Italian 25K, and you 35K.
Assuming non-paired turn card and Glenne called:
If Glenne checks, Italian will probably go all-in. If so, pull some legit looking hollywooding, count out a call, separate from your stack, count how much it would leave you with, look back at your cards, stretch your arms out over your head, look at the crowd, look back at your cards one more time, give a defeated looking smirk, and say "alright I call" and pray that Glenne feels priced in, and hope he's drawing dead.
If it's checked to you on the turn, I would consider betting something that would look like a steal, maybe 8K or so?
If the turn card pairs the board:
Uggh....does the Italian always have a boat or quads if the board pairs here? I'd probably feel compelled to call an all-in (if the turn is the 3d or 5d it would be a little easier to call). Probably a bad call a lot of the time, though.
If it's checked to me with the turn card pairing the board I would probably check behind and call a river bet, or if it's checked to me again on the river, I would probably bet 8K.
Disclaimer: This what _I_ would do, which almost certainly makes it wrong!
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