Re: Common No Limit Situation
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[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]The strength of BB's bet suggests I am behind at the moment.
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What exactly do you think he's betting with?
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[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Against any hand I am currently behind, I'm drawing very thin.
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Yeah, that makes sense.
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[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Many players remain to act behind me, all of whom had enough hand to call my (tight) UTG PFR.
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It's not like they all have good hands. By the time it got to BB, he had to call 400 to see a flop for a 3600 pot. It doesn't take much hand to make that call.
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[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Whether I am ahead or behind at the moment, unless I go all-in immediately, there are many turn and river cards that will cause me to lose even if I am ahead at the moment, whether by forcing me to fold the best hand or by outdrawing me.
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That can be said about any non-nut hand. I don't think that's a good reason to fold here.
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[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]If I don't push immediately, I am laying implied odds if I continue: I have a hand that wants a cheap showdown and I have no way to get it. Thus if I am beat, I stand to lose a lot.
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First, you could get a cheap showdown. It's certainly possible. As for your other point, that's a definite concern. But we only lose a big pot if we put a lot more money in the pot, and we'll always have the option of folding if things get that ugly. Dont forget that we have position on this guy, which is a huge help in keeping the pot smaller.
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[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] The flip side of the same coin: If I play on, I stand to win only a little when I'm ahead, unless BB or one of the other players is a maniac - but if they are, I can pick a better spot later and likely break one or more of them with quite a bit less risk.
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Usually the "win only a little" argument is reserved for people that are out of position.
As for waiting for a better spot, this is a cash game, not a tourney.
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[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]I believe that if I go all-in, my push will be called (and lose) more than 13-to-2.
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If I read this right, you're saying that you've got less than or equal to 15% equity in this hand if he calls every time.
If you push, the others always fold, and he always calls and has either:
1)AA, 88, or 77 for a set,
2)A8 or A7 for aces up, or
3)AhXh,
you've got 24% equity.
Removing the AhXh hands, you've got 12.2% equity. Although this is assuming he calls all the time (which he won't), and that the other players will fold all the time (which they won't), we can see that we're pushing our money in with not much equity. We definitely have some fold equity if we push, but I don't think it's nearly enough to cover how badly beaten we are and how much money we lose when we get called. I think pushing is a disaster here.
I think you're underestimating BB's betting range here.
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