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Old 04-05-2007, 04:48 PM
jogger08152 jogger08152 is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 1,510
Default Re: Common No Limit Situation

Never played this size game, but without player reads, I'd fold here immediately:

[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]The strength of BB's bet suggests I am behind at the moment.
[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Against any hand I am currently behind, I'm drawing very thin.
[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Many players remain to act behind me, all of whom had enough hand to call my (tight) UTG PFR.
[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Whether I am ahead or behind at the moment, unless I go all-in immediately, there are many turn and river cards that will cause me to lose even if I am ahead at the moment, whether by forcing me to fold the best hand or by outdrawing me.
[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]If I don't push immediately, I am laying implied odds if I continue: I have a hand that wants a cheap showdown and I have no way to get it. Thus if I am beat, I stand to lose a lot.
[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] The flip side of the same coin: If I play on, I stand to win only a little when I'm ahead, unless BB or one of the other players is a maniac - but if they are, I can pick a better spot later and likely break one or more of them with quite a bit less risk.
[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]I believe that if I go all-in, my push will be called (and lose) more than 13-to-2.

For the record though, I think a push is less expensive than the 1200 or 1800 dollar raise some have suggested. I would expect the small raise to lose almost every time, whereas a push might knock out AK or A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]x[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
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