Re: WHAT IS DERBS SCREENAME ON PP???
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I hate this thread so much I don't know why I'm posting in it but anyway...
Without writing a novel, Justin A is correct. If you simply take his win rate and SD you are ignoring selection bias. To get the best approximation, you must use all available information. This not only includes win rate, SD, and a Z-table, but also includes the more fuzzy idea that this player is being examined because of his win rate in the first place, and the anecdotal evidence that he plays like players who lose. If you have 1,000 players who play the same, one of them will have a higher win rate than the rest, and this will be significantly higher than the average. If you look at the sample of 1,000 and choose the highest win rate and then try to reverse engineer his true win rate using a confidence interval, you are going to get a very wrong answer because you are ignoring the information that he plays the same as the other 1,000 players. Of course this is not a direct analogy because no players play exactly the same, but you are making the same mistake as someone who chooses a mutual fund that showed a huge profit in the past year. If you put enough monkeys in front of enough typewriters, eventually one will type HPFAP. If, after this, you select the one who does and claim he is Mason Malmuth, you are of course wrong. Or are you? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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RIG I think its time to bow down!
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