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Old 04-05-2007, 11:25 AM
spider spider is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Wash DC
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Default Re: trading/investing in commodities - why do/have people prefer equit

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Just wondering why so many people go for equities? The recent last few years for commodities seems to of been great, why have so many not taken advantage?

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A couple more comments... Part of why commodities have done well is b/c more people have been buying them (or futures). Part of it is b/c the world economy has been great and demand from China in particular for oil, copper, and other commodities has just skyrocketed. I forget the exact percent, but if you look at oil demand over the last 10 years, most of the increase in demand is from China (though of course their level of demand is still a bit less than the US's).

But the question is whether the rise in commodity prices is permanent or temporary. I think it's fair to say that most people think it will be temporary given that commodity prices historically (100+ years) have basically increased at the rate of inflation. For most commidities, the cost is roughly going to equal the cost of extraction (mining/drilling). Unless you think there is some reason those costs will rise faster than inflation, it's hard to come up with a reason for the commodities themselves to increase faster than inflation.

Oil, of course, is a little different than the other commodities but maybe not as much as many people think as we get closer to the point where various substitutes become more feasible.
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