[dlpnyc21]

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Man, the thought process is incredible here. In your blog you wrote it was a terrible decision. Well in all honesty it was prob pretty close to neutral ev. It didnt work out so what. If I make what is a good bet and lose I'm happy.
I got my money in good and that's all that matters. I am frequently amazed that generally intelligent people .are very bad at grasping gambling oriented concepts. Gauge the ev of a situation and forget about results. Even later when you say you won 23k, well I guarantee you ran very well. If you had lost you would be saying what a poor decision it was to play when you were upset

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LOL. It's not results. If he had won, I still would have been upset at myself for risking so much. Yes, it was +ev, but I could also put all of my investments in one blue-chip stock that was relatively +ev, or I could play every 10k donkament in sight, which I'm probalby +ev in over the long run, but I don't. I was upset at myself for my underestimation of my risk tolerance in a single investment, simple as that. NOTHING to do with my estimation of his ev in the game. simply put, he was +eV in the game, but the variance was pretty high. that will affect the overall value of the investment. variance in poker is like beta in stocks. it's implied/natural volatility will affect it's average price (or value of my investment in this case).