Re: **Official uNL microbrew thread:April**
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Supwithbabes, dude, you put in 50% of your stack on the river while behind. If anyone got outplayed in that hand, it's you.
Up to the river, I agree, you played it pretty well.
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and the other 90% of the time he didn't hit the 5 outer he's bluffshoving the missed draw when checked to him, hence why I took this line. It's the ever-so-standard stack-a-donk, you don't do it without a great read but I'd already seen him get caught playing overaggro on a draw, missing, and then overbetting river and getting called by a station and showing down a missed draw.
Hence, when he minraises, I say "almost always a draw". I call and lead turn, he calls, makes me say "def the flush draw, he knows I'm playing strong and doesn't think I'll fold so he calls to hit the flush". He rivers 2 pair, I check, he shoves as he always does and I snapcall. 9 flush cards he's paid too much to see, 5 other cards he's doubling, the rest of the time I get his whole stack. UBER+EV line.
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although i disagree with your hand entirely, if you were so sure he was on a draw, why didn't you just shove the flop? 95 offsuit isn't a hand you want to take the river. playing back at him on the flop also gives you a strong table image, instead you just look like a calling station.
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im tired of defending this hand, but shoving flop, if his cards are at all above me, gets me in at a coinflip... playing it the way I did basically gets his stack half the time, I double him 10%, and I lose a small pot 40% and get away easily
plus I thought he had a flush on flop, but wasn't about to shove on a hunch.. after the turn I was 99.99% sure
to restate:
5/44 times, or 1/9 of the time, Villains turn call of 1$ nets him 3.85+1+1.5=6.35$ total profit, getting 6.35:1 return on a 9:1 odds of hitting=mistake
9/44 times, or 1/5 of the time, villain's turn call of 1$ nets him 1+1.5=2.5, for a return of 2.5:1 on a 5:1 chance of hitting. =mistake
Even without the bluffshove, me playing this hand this way is hugely+EV.
Since I know he is apt to bluffshove river, that means that I'm potentially making as much as 3.85+1+1.5=6.35x30/44, or adding 4$ expected value PER HAND in addition to the msitake I'm already forcing of him. It's probably less than that in reality, since there are scarecards that he probably doesn't shove, ie the 2 remaining 9s, any ace, etc. then again, he might not even think that complexly to evaluate the board before bluffing a missed draw.
Anyways, if you still doubt that my line is hugely+EV over a flop shove (50:50 with a 1.5 overlay) then I don't know what to tell you
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