Re: Confidence intervals are not accurate here
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In light of this, anecdotal evidence suggesting that DERB is bad is all you should need to be confident he is not a winner and is simply the luckiest player at party. This sounds unlikely until you remember how we chose this guy... we searched the database for the most ridiculous stats / win combination. Of course, this is likely to correspond to the luckiest guy.
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Again, you can use Baysean Statistical Inference to blend expert oppinion and data.
Also, you can quantify the liklihood that this is the result of survivor bias.
I think assuming this guy is a lottery winner based on intuition is not very rigorous, to say the least. Greater minds than ours thought and convinced the world that heavier objects fell faster than lighter ones because it was intuitively obvious.
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