[missmisery]

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mismissery

devils advocate- silver prices are historically high a significant drop seems very bad for the mine while I do see that there is ample room in our estimates for some disappointmnt.

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Sure, silver could go down. This is always a risk when you invest in mining companies. I believe that the company would still be profitable with a lower silver price (they also have significant amount of copper,zinc and lead), but off course, my targets should be readjusted if you're bearish on silver. BTW, when I use targets (either here or in my blog), it is usually just to show the potential. If I place a 5$ target on AUN, one should never assume that it will reach this price because their way too much things that can't be predicted. For example, they may have some troubles with the mil, thus reducing the production. Finally, its the market that will decide how much Aurcana is worth 12 months from here.. not any target I mention.

While silver could go down, I would say that a vast majority of "experts" (which I'm not), are very bullish on gold/silver on the long term. If silver goes to 20$ for example like a lot of people predict, then my targets should be increased.

Basically, I like the risk/reward ratio here. I believe that there's significant upside and this is worth the risk. If the company fails to deliver, then so be it and I'll move on. I'll be the first to admit that I was wrong. I've already invested in bad companies and I'll continue to do it my whole life.