[jk3a]

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JW, would you be asking this if you weren't on a downswing (you said you were in a thread from a few days ago)?

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Probably not. But I'm trying to post some "routine" spots that I haven't thought about in a while for confirmation.

If he's only folding say 50% of his range to a flop bet, is a bet here really +EV? Let's assume I bet 2/3 of the pot here and I have on average 25% equity against his calling range and he always checks the turn. With a 2/3 pot cbet, I need him to fold ~40% for this bet to be neutral EV without taking into account my chance of improving. Obviously, I can get called here by worse like flush draws and the occasional idiot with overs, but I'm not really sure how dramatic that effect might be.

What % of his range do you guys think he folds here?