[LearnedfromTV]

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I'm not positive i'm right, but some of you guuyys are giving villains lots of credit..

"If he had AJ he played it horrible"

Well, yea. Thats why a good % of us don't have to have real jobs.

AJ could definitely get here. and worse.

(again, i'm not positive it's a call or anything, it's thin either way, but you gotta remember, people are bad at this game)

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It's not about giving the Villain too much credit and it's not that he couldn't have AJ/AT. My point is that the inconsistency in the line doesn't fit most bad players. It's more likely that a bad player will bet-bet-bet or call-check-call than call-check-bet. A lot of bad players will play this flop aggressively holding a weaker ace. Other bad players will play the flop passively with the same hand (and probably call down). Whichever it is, it's more likely than not to be a general tendency that will help us with the river read.

The information we have is that he played the flop passively (and preflop, calling raises twice), which makes it more likely that *if he has AJ*, he'll check-call the river. For this reason I think it is less likely that he has AJ/AT/etc.. Not impossible, but less likely. We're weighing probabilities here. Combine this with the flush and the fact that AQ waking up and betting the river does make a lot of sense, either from a bad player who plays passively against strength or from a good player who wanted to keep the pot small until he hit the river, and I think this is a close fold.