Thread: Variance
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Old 03-30-2007, 11:30 PM
AlexSem AlexSem is offline
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Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 295
Default Re: Variance

[ QUOTE ]
what I call "permatilt." Sometimes when we're losing, we try to adjust our play too much. We start folding because we've gotten screwed too many times by calling down, and we start calling down because we see one or two bluffs. Turns get checked behind with good hands because a scary card hits the board.

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This sums it up nicely.

I'd also like to add that I doubt anyone would be invincible to this and hence they're the superior player - no. It's just that some get hit by bad stretches in rows, others spread out. When you get hit in rows, you start to lose that confidence and what's ultimately worse, is that the people you are playing against start playing -EV but very tough poker where they'll raise turns with questionable hands making it incredibly hard for you, mentally...

So while 2 players may be of equal skill, or one a better player by a slight margin, the better player can get hit by downstreaks in a long stretch and have his confidence destroyed and it might take a few months to fully gain it back. Whereas the slighty worse player continued running up down up down ultimately learning the game and becoming a great player.

So let's assume someone runs bad for 2 months. Then it takes 2-3 months to gain that confidence back. That's 5 months of break-even poker or slight profit.

The other, had a sligth edge but ran well and continued to improve and improve and towards the 3rd month, became a rather good player and hence made a bunch of money with an impressive hourly rate.


So the better player had a 5 month bad streak whereas the slighty worse player is now running the game.


Go figure [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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