[A_PLUS]

You only need to be right 25% of the time for this to be correct. I don't really see why everyone is acting like AT or AJ are impossible here. It isn't a good line with these hands, but I dont think it is unexpected by any means.

So, what range to do we put him on, that beats us? A flush? Well, we are making some pretty big assumptions here, when putting him on a flush. We know he doesnt have AK (we have the king). So, if it is a nut flush, it is AQ or less. So, AJ-AT have to be in his pf range, for us to really be seriously considering a flush. If they are in his range, will he really be folding Ad Jd, to a C-bet? If not, wont he expect it to be good on the river?

Basically, the flush is only really scary if we put him on a fairly wide range of pf hands. I'm not willing to do that without putting A9+ in as well. Most of those aces are betting this river.

I think it is a stretch to find a fold here, the more that I think about it.