Re: Advice needed
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bc ur gonna have way sicker downswings.
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This is not true. Let's make some basic assumptions:
1. Site A has soft games that you can beat for 2 BB/100. No rakeback or incentives are available.
2. Site B has tough games that you can only beat for 0.5 BB/100 but the site gives you 1.5 BB/100 in rakeback.
3. Your standard deviation (SD) in BB/100 would be the same in either game.
4. Delay in receiving rakeback doesn't matter. Your bankroll is large enough that waiting until the end of the month (or whenever) to be paid is no hardship.
Your profit rate in either game will be 2 BB/100. The probability of losing money over a 10000 hand sample is the same. So is the probability of a 300 BB downswing. Ditto for any similar measure of good or bad luck.
In order to lose over 10000 hands at Site A you need results that are more than 2 BB/100 below average. The probabilty of this happening is determined by SD.
In order to lose over 10000 hands at Site B you also need results that are more than 2 BB/100 below average. The first 0.5 BB/100 worth of bad luck eats up your table winnings and the next 1.5 BB/100 worth of bad luck cancels the rakeback. Once again the probabilty of this happening is determined by SD.
Assumption 3 is obviously not perfect. Different games do have somewhat different SDs. In general good games have somewhat higher variance than bad games because loose play inflates variance. So while "it depends" the swings at juicy Site A may actually be worse than at tough Site B.
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Thank you, Stellarwind. Now that the WPX thing has been cleared up, I'm once again ready to suckle the glorious teet.
<Begin mod edit by StellarWind>
I deleted your last sentence. This forum is for strategy and occasionally having a little fun. It's not a place for you to do business. Don't so anything like that again.
<End mod rant>
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