Re: calculating holdem probability - flush draw vs two-pair
To win, your opponent must hit his flush and you not fill up. We'll also assume that you won't have a better flush if a fourth suited card hits. So the turn and river must have at least one suited card and one card that doesn't hit your hand.
There are 45c2 = 990 turn+river combos
He makes his flush on 9*8/2 + 9*36 = 360 of them
on 9*4 = 36 of them, you also fill up
So he hits the flush without you filling up on 324 flops, or 32.7%.
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