Re: calculating holdem probability - flush draw vs two-pair
You're interested in the probability he makes the flush given that you do not improve . Lets say you hold 6c-7c and the flop is 7h 6h kd . Your opponent has Ah 2H for the nut flush draw .
Either villain hits his out on the turn followed by a miss from hero , or both miss on the turn and villain hits on the river .
9/45*40/44 + 32/45*9/44 = 32.727%
You also have to factor in the probability that villain hits runner runner for trips or better two pair . The probability of that is just 6c2/45c2 =1.5%
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