[Victorvdb]

The way I see hands like these is as follows:

UTG+1 raises to 30/60, barring no additional reads that could well be AT+, KQ+, 77+. I'd expect him to limp weaker hands. UTG+2 calls, and I'd tighten up the range for him - AJ+, KQ+, 99+. Both of these ranges might be a bit too loose, but I have little respect for party players. Also, with no additional reads, early in the tournament, I think you can EXCLUDE AK and QQ+ for the UTG+2.

They see a reraise from you, following their own line of thinking - that means JJ+ and AK.

Enter flop.

They check to you, you bet, they still think hmm could be QQ or KK or something and they call. Aces can be excluded here I think as they would've reraised preflop. Also 22/33 seems very unlikely. If they had AK here, I'd expect a reraise as well, though I've seen calls there too. And as for flushdraws, in the range I noted there's not much range for a flushdraw... except a hand like AQcc, where again I'd expect AQcc to reraise (and also AJcc and ATcc). KQcc is an impossibility due to obvious reasons. A plain call would be something I'd expect AT-AQ to do, regardless of whether they have Ac. I wouldn't expect a JJ or TT or so to call this bet, and rather just fold to it as they know the ace is spooky.

This is why I think I would bet the turn. There is no reason to assume you're behind (yet) from my point of view and you can still expect a call from an ace with T-Qc, and Ac T-Qx. I'd expect a made flush to reraise you here as well, from fear of you having AA and the board pairing. If you get reraised on the turn then you can re-evaluate if it's worth it to you to hang on to the rest of your chips, or to gamble it up for the club on the river / him not having an ace high flush yet.

As for your current line, by checking the turn, you present him with the opportunity to bluff. But, as you have already said it's unlikely he's bluffing on this board - that is if he is thinking you're bluffing. If he has a hand like AT / AJ I doubt he would bet it, with it becoming a weak value bet, because you could very well have QQ with Qc, and hit set on river. So he's willing to bet into made flush board, and with the rivered Q, and from all previous analysis I'd say he has AQ or the flush. I'd expect the average party donk just to check/call AJ-AT here thinking you bluffed again with KK. On the other hand, I'm at work and got disrupted thrice during typing this so please point out any logical mistakes [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

All of this changes wildly when I get more/less respect for the players at hand, other than "I'm assuming he's a partydonk because i have no reads"