Re: High Stakes Poker thread 3/26 (Ivey and others)
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QQ hand ... I also would have liked to see a turn semibluff by Daniel/David, particularly Daniel.
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Only because you want to see if Ivey can pull off the Hellmuth instapushbeatyouinthepot move, right? It's easy to say so since I could see their cards, but I think they were both so obviously drawing that there's no way Ivey wouldn't be repopping a semibluff. Calling lets them draw, raising certainly loses money when they wind up facing a big rr they can't call.
DN's check on the end was probably not to let Ivey fire again, but hoping DW would be fool enough to bet. If he finally leads out, he gets one caller, tops, and only if he doesn't bet too much (what would bet there that doesn't beat an overpair, since the draws didn't come in?). I suspect Ivey is more likely to call if DW bets than if DN bets, and if DN bets, DW isn't calling (and Ivey's Spidey sense is good enough that he might not either).
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That's hardly an easy decision for an overpair if Negreanu check raises the turn, although I can't remember how deep the stacks were between Ivey and DN (I remember DW was fairly short, having about 40k left on the river). Pretty easy for DN to have hit some wierd two pair or straight on the turn, or slowplayed something on the flop. And even if he gets all in against Ivey, he had almost 20 outs. Also, a checkraise would have gotten Williams out behind him the higher flush draw. It's only obvious Daniel had a draw because you can see the cards.
Daniel didn't check to induce a bluff from Williams, he was probably hoping Ivey would value bet an overpair or something. Williams only had about $40k left on the river, and the pot was like $130k at that point, it would be a very foolish bluff since he can't really represent much on that card. If David had pushed the river, Ivey certainly would have called him.
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