[jaydub]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Tommy,

On what do you base your estimates of a slow decline lasting 12-18 months or a hard crash lasting 6 months?
J

[/ QUOTE ]

My gut and 10+ years of being heavily involved in RE markets. Extensive conversations with some of the smartest people in the industry...lots of economic data, etc.

I don't think the hard crash will last 6 months, btw, I think it will occur in about 6 months. We ain't there yet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Care to elaborate on any specifics, perhaps some of that economic data?

I find it unlikely that a multi year run-up in housing gets resolved in such a short time frame (in either scenario you propose). My reasons for doubting this include:

* the historical stickiness of real estate (especially on the way down)
* the experiences in Japan which is not a perfect model for the US for a number of reasons but is highly relevant
* the phased nature of the rate increases and 110% LTV triggers

J

[/ QUOTE ]

So, what do you see happening? I think Japan is a lousy example, btw.

[/ QUOTE ]

As should be obvious, a much longer decline. To be specific likely 4+ years.

Why is Japan a lousy example? Are you intending to just make unsupported one off statements like that?

J