[tommy2]

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i always dig your posts. glad youre back.

i may be selling my house and staying in the same town. due to some unique development changes in austin, my neighborhood has garnered a lot of positive attention lately. my house has doubled in value in the four years ive had it.

-if i choose to sell, what timing makes the most sense based on your predictions and what you know about markets? can one reasonably sell a house for max profit and at the same time take advantage of a soft market by finding desperate sellers?

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First off, thanks for your kind words. On to your question: as I said, things are going to get worse before they get better. I'm no expert on Austin, but in general here are some of the things I would be thinking about if I were you:

1. How many buyers are out there for your property at your price range? The recent subprime bubble crash is going to pull a bunch of buyers out of the market. All of the people who make good $, but have poor credit or no $ for a down payment are going to find it much much tougher to get a loan. Texas (although I base this on what I know about Dallas and Houston, not Austin) has usually been (like California) a state that has bounced higher and fallen faster than the "average" in times of boom or bust.

2. Why do you want to sell? Is it just the $--if so, this might be a good time to make an arbitrage move. The banks are still lending, the market is still semi-liquid, and if you can wait and don't have to sell you could make out like a bandit (i.e. get your price as a seller and then turn around and steal a house due to market conditions). I'd take a hard look at this option.

3. Do you like your current home? Does it suit your current needs? If so, maybe refi out a bunch of $ and buy a smaller house that is a real steal and rent it out? The rental markets should greatly improve as a bunch of marginal players are going to be shut out of the housing market for a few years.