[mikeJ]

The reason why I don't like c/c-ing on a blank river is that villain will be betting for one of two reasons..

(1) Value
(2) Bluff

You beat none of his vbetting hands from category (1). Except an occasional AQ if the river comes a K and he decides to make a bad vbet.

Well, how bout category (2)? What hands can he be bluffing w/ that get to the river, whether we check/call turn or it goes check/check turn? You beat a flop float and someone turning like QJ into a bluff and that's about it. I think it's very reasonable to assume that unknown people in MTTs aren't going to be turning QJ into a bluff on a J5KA2/J5KAK/J5KAQ board, they are going to check it down.

Conclusion: There are very few combos of blank rivers/villain's bets, that I think I can call profitably.

Leading turn is all kinds of bad, you rarely fold out better hands, you fold out pretty much all worse hands, and if your hand is ahead, your opponent usually has like 2 outs. If you lead and you get raised, you're pretty much ALWAYS behind, I don't really feel like looking @ the math to see if you're committed to call a shove, but when your bet gets action, you're going to be getting your money in behind. However, if you check and he bets, you will very often have close to the right direct pot odds to c/c and draw to a T/spade.

Leading turn is really bad, unless you have some sick metagame stuff you are working into your game.