Re: Results
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When he raised, I thought, "Wow he made a flush, should I 3-bet? Yes." And so I did, he called, and I lost to the AK flush. After thinking about the hand afterward, I think I should just call because if he has the flush (which is likely given 5th/6th calls and 7th raise), it is probable (though of course not definite) he has the A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] given the 3rd street repop. The only other hands he could have (barring some longshot goofy hand) would be pocket aces turned aces-up or trip aces (probabilistically unlikely given our hand) making a thin value river raise, or the flush draw that hit a straight. As stated, he'll never have trip Ks and Js because he will raise either 5th or 6th with those monster hands. Consequently, the likelihood of a full house is quite low.
In short, his most likely hand is the AK flush, followed by a K-high flush, followed by aces up. Thus, I think a 3-bet is marginally incorrect, but definitely not horrible since he almost surely will not cap the betting (in part because of our open pair) and will most likely call with hands we beat that he raised for value.
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This was an enjoyable post blumpkin, and I was pretty sure he had the AK flush as we went along as you gently tried to lead us in the right direction. I wish I had responded one more time before you posted the results, but I didn't, so...
"what do you think he hand range is after he calls the bet from my open QQ on 5th?"
I had thought about this question for a couple of days, and I came up with the same answers you just mentioned, AA or the 3 flush holding the A.
Given all of the discussion, I have come to agree, in this specific situation, the raising is incorrect. (Yes, this is post results, nonetheless, I think I have been honest about my opinion the whole way).
In the heat of battle I'm 3-betting this every time. For 2 reasons.
1) We're protected against a cap because of the Q's,(which you have just mentioned).
2) It's not obvious that our hand is a flush. I could easily see aces up popping the river.
So there is my final analysis. Give me 4 seconds to think about it, 3 bet it every time.
Give me four days, and I'm just calling.
Good job on a nice post.
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