[Micturition Man]

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Yeah but he can also have aces up, kings up, or trips. He doesn't have to be putting you on anything more than queens up.

I think the flush point is pretty obvious. If he does have a flush there is a very good chance it is AK high.

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Is aces up even a good value raise on the river here? (And if aces up aren't, can trips ever be?) Given that your most likely hands are a pair on third or a flush draw, it seems like a bad raise against a player who can bet-fold queens with a busted flush draw or queens up. I'm willing to believe that it is a good idea against some opponents, but not against all opponents. Are there players who will raise and fold with aces up if you three-bet?

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A question like this can be answered on a practical or a theoretical level.

On a theoretical level, hero could definitely have nothing but QQ on 7th and bet it as a bluff.

The fact that hero could be bluffing forces villain to call with a large % of his hands that beat QQ but not queens up.

At the same time villain should, in theory, bluff raise some of these hands that beat QQ but not queens up, so that hero cannot automatically fold queens up to a raise.

The upshot is that in theory it probably should be profitable to value raise with aces or kings up here, UNLESS hero's distribution is heavily weighted to four flushes.

Based on the 3rd street action I would say it's very likely hero started with a 3 straight or 3 flush here. You would have to consider the exposed cards and crunch specific numbers, but I think the possiblity of a 3 straight down is probably big enough that villain should, in theory, raise kings or aces up.

Now in practice it's a completely different story... if hero is in fact going to fold queens up here a high % of the time, then value raising aces or kings up or even trips is a mistake, but bluff-raising becomes highly profitable.