[Eric Stoner]

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I guess what I am getting at is trying to figure out whether my recent play against certain bad players is really just variance or not... obviously I have no doubt that I can consistently make money from these people because right now I am just killing them, but the question is, how much of my current return is variance and how much can I expect to have it continue?

I just started on a new site where the players are complete garbage, and my return over the first 18,000 hands is on average 9.55 BB/100... and that includes a long period where quite frankly I was playing too loose. If I just take the last 7000 hands where I have limited my play to peak times, switched tables at the right time, and honestly just played better, my return is around 17 BB/100, with one period of 2000 hands where it was 33 BB/100.

Now, I am pretty sure that the 2000 hand spurt of 33 BB/100 was variance, and I am also pretty sure that over 17,000 hands I can count on around 10 BB/100 (since that seems like too many hands for simple statistical deviation), but I'm wondering if 7000 hands is enough to determine the new (improved) rate of 17 BB/100, where I have limited my playing to peak times and improved my strategy. I can also say that I have had quite a number of bad beats that made me want to throw a shoe through my monitor, so it's not like I have been getting perfect cards this entire time.

Am I correct in thinking this or is there a nasty 25,000 hand downswing on the way? That's kind of what I was thinking about this... I haven't played that many hands online, so someone who has played millions of hands would have a better idea of this type of thing...

Edit: The more I think about it, the more these BB/100 numbers seem out of whack in comparison to what others are talking about - you mentioned 1 BB to 3 BB/100, and I am talking about 5-10 times that amount - yet that is what Poker Office is reporting... anyone else use that program and are these numbers correct?

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My numbers are from limit. In no limit poker, using Poker Tracker terminology, a consistent winner could make between 5-7 PTBB/100 (double the big blind is a PTBB).

However, you are correct in surmising that it could be a factor of having the cards hit along with playing your cards well for maximum value.

If you are making the best decisions that you can, I wouldn't worry about the negative variance to come. Just focus on your decisions and just recognize that there will be a time when the cards will run against you.

You just can't predict the exact moment with certainty. Variance is determined by what happened and not what will happen.