[jively]

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Take any stock - Altria was mentioned in this thread. 11 million shares of Altria traded today. So, pensions, mutual funds, and individuals bought 11 million shares of it today - and all of those buyers think the stock is going up. But other pensions, mutual funds and individuals sold it today - the same 11 million shares worth! - and all those sellers think it is going down, or there is someplace better for their money. So, who is right?

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This line would also argue that no one can beat a sportsbook over the longterm. After all, someone is always taking the other side of your bet.

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Interesting point. However, the buyers and sellers of stock do think it is going up or going down, so the current price is a pretty good indication of the stock's value. With sports betting, the point spread is determined by the bookmaker, not as an estimate of how much the favorite will win by, but only designed to equalize the bets so they break even no matter who wins. If too many people are buying one side they move the point spread to equalize it. Sports betting may be more inefficient than the stock market.

-Tom