[innerpeace]

kala, thanks for providing the analysis.

i think, though, that your numbers/analysis is off. for example, i don't understand why you say i'm -57k for checking behind the turn and folding if the board pairs.

also, keep in mind that if i put my opponent on specific hands, then that accounts for two cards. so there are 44 cards left.

i see where your intuition is coming from, though it's incorrect. there is a tradeoff since 6 cards will scare villain. however, that is more than offset by the 10 cards that improve villain's hand. if you do the ev calculation with the correct probabilities then you will find that checking behind comes out ahead of pushing the turn.

also, i also expect villain will call a reasonable size bet on the river even if a q or j fall.