[Kala1928]

Going all in on the turn with 81% equity equals 300,000$*0,81=+243,000$

Checking the turn behind and folding when the board pairs equals 300,000$*-0,19=-57,000$
I'm not sure how the amount of dollars you have already invested in the pot affects this option.

Checking the turn behind and calling/pushing non pairing river equals 300,000$

Checking the turn behind and valuebetting a Q/J river equals 108,000$+(n*y) which is sick hard to calculate because you need to know amount to bet n and frequency of him calling y. I'll just use 60,000$ and 50% for the sake of making the calculation.

Checking the turn behind and valuebettin a Q/J river equals 108,000$+60,000$*0,5=138,000$
Now this happens 12% of the time you check the turn behind.

So checking the turn behind will result in

a) board pairing 19% of the time
b) river being Q/J 12% of the time
c) river being a brick 69% of the time

note that by checking the turn behind ev wise you not only lose the pot 19% of the time but you actually give up a partion of the pot in S$ to your opponent(19% of the pot).

a+b+c

0,19*-57K+0,12*138K+0,69*300K = +234,390$ which is actually 9000$ less than going all in on the turn.


My intuition also says that because hero has already invested almost 1/3 of his stack to the pot not going allin with an 81% chance of winning a big pot is not correct. This would make more sense if hero has only invested a small amount (less than 19%) of his stack but is still sure he will stack villain on a non-pairing river card.