[fslexcduck]

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i think villain folds anything except a set

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and will give me enough of a read that i can confidently fire again on the turn if i don't think he has a set

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huh?

but yeah if he will call a push if on Q or J comes on river, then clearly checking is correct since 6 cards kill you rather than 10. esp. since he will prob check call a decent amt on a Q or J river.

the question is - is this really true, that he plays this obviously? and can you definitely get away from any bet on a board pairing river?

but given your set of (ideal and unrealistically certain in my opinion) circumstances, checking is clearly the right play