Re: Conjecture and Question
I think you conjecture is intuitively obvious, and almost certainly correct for reasons that others have no doubt stated.
However I think the key point is quantifying the effect. For instance is the effect so small that you should not change your strategy on account of it?
Computer simulation is a good way of getting a feel for things. I did some tests a while back although I assumed equal skill, maybe I will go back and rework them.
The other important question is what is our great player going to do if he gets knocked out of the tournament? Is there a great $500/$1000 NLH game to get back to? Are there several $10000 buy in comp starting online in the next few hours. In other words what exactly is your objective.
I think the question is dangerous, in the sense that a casual reader might get the impression your conjecture applies to them in the tournaments they typically enter. I think the TCEV<>$EV is the most abused concept in tournament poker.
|