[Josh.]

[ QUOTE ]

Based on this analysis, I should just shove. Josh, is that what you conclude?

[/ QUOTE ]

that looks right. also realize that this is super conservative (i didn't take into account the stars-factor where AJo is the nuts)

regarding the 28%, it's just AA(6) + KK(1)/[AA(6) + KK(1) + QQ(6) + AK (12)], though i definitely should've included JJ, probably TT, and a 5-10% bluff factor. that all obviously benefits you

there's also a little problem in that you're 25 bb deeper with SB, who *should* have AA/KK, and that 25 bb as a 4-1 dog comes right off the top of the EV of the other 75 bb vs those 2.

as a sidenote i don't know how you approached the differing stacksizes and weird scenarios where you can beat SB for the sidepot, but lose to MP. the way i'd go at that would be to first pretend like everyone's stack is the same size as MP's stack and calculate an EV. then i'd just calculate the remaining 50 bb sidepot (where you each put in 25 bb), get your EV off that and put it with the other calc. you probably only win something like 15% of the time since the dead cards from MP will frequently contain a K